Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Steelers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+108/-141).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+108) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast Kenny Pickett to attempt 37.2 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in football.
- Kenny Pickett’s throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 64.9% to 57.6%.
- Kenny Pickett has been among the least efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 5.99 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 18th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 8th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 208.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards
253
Passing Yards
