Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-114/-122).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-122) after it opened @ 201.5 (-118).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Lamar Jackson’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.9% to 73.7%.
Lamar Jackson has been among the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 7.31 yards-per-target while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens as the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.5 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the league.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the fewest yards in the league (just 192.0 per game) against the Browns defense since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Cleveland Browns defense has given up a puny 65.7% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards