Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Ryan Tannehill from EV Insight

Ryan TannehillPassing Yards

Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may go down.
The Bengals safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
Ryan Tannehill’s throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.3% to 61.3%.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 9th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 211.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards