Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ryan TannehillPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- The Bengals safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
- Ryan Tannehill’s throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.3% to 61.3%.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 9th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 211.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
