Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Vikings
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
- The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- The model projects Alexander Mattison to accrue 14.6 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Alexander Mattison to be a much smaller piece of his team’s run game in this game (60.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (78.0% in games he has played).
- The Panthers defensive ends rank as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
