Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-135) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
The projections expect Terry McLaurin to garner 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Cons

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin has been used less as a potential target this season (80.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (92.8%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Terry McLaurin’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 8.50 yards-per-target compared to a 9.90 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards