Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
- The predictive model expects Brian Robinson to garner 14.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
- After making up 52.4% of his offense’s carries last season, Brian Robinson has played a bigger part in the run game this season, now comprising 73.4%.
- Brian Robinson has generated 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
- Brian Robinson has been among the best RBs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.28 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Commanders as the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-fewest yards in football (just 109 per game) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
