Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-139/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (+108) after it opened @ 22.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The projections expect Juwan Johnson to notch 4.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- When talking about air yards, Juwan Johnson ranks in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 35.0 per game.
- Juwan Johnson has been among the top tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 30.0 yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Juwan Johnson’s 23.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 30.4.
- The Saints offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Juwan Johnson’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.7% to 58.8%.
- The Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against tight ends this year, yielding 5.10 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
