Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to notch 8.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- Mike Evans has been among the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 73.0 yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Cons
- The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (54.8%) vs. wideouts this year (54.8%).
- The Saints pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 6.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
- Saints defensive tackles profile as the 6th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
