WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
- Dak Prescott’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 68.5%.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.1% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season (67.6%).
- The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.47 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-fewest in football.
- The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 8th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
