Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-122).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-122) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect Joe Mixon to accumulate 14.9 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has picked up 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (87th percentile).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
While Joe Mixon has garnered 84.6% of his team’s carries in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Cincinnati’s ground game in this week’s contest at 72.5%.
The Tennessee Titans defense owns the best efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, allowing just 3.38 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards