Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-122) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Joe Mixon to accumulate 14.9 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has picked up 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (87th percentile).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
- While Joe Mixon has garnered 84.6% of his team’s carries in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Cincinnati’s ground game in this week’s contest at 72.5%.
- The Tennessee Titans defense owns the best efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, allowing just 3.38 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
