Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-114) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
- T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 83.9% of his team’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to earn 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- T.J. Hockenson’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 4.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 mark last season.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 38.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
- The Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
