Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-104) after it opened @ 47.5 (-119).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
Adam Thielen has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 51.0 yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Cons

The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.1% pass rate.
The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards