Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bears vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-114) after it opened @ 235.5 (-114).
Pros
- Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 64.7%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the best per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 7.34 yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in football against the Bears defense since the start of last season (73.0%).
- The Bears pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 8.65 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
- The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Broncos to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Russell Wilson to attempt 30.6 passes this week, on average: the 4th-fewest of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards
223
Passing Yards
