Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 82.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to total 11.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
When it comes to air yards, Stefon Diggs ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 104.0 per game.
Stefon Diggs has been among the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 92.0 yards per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Cons

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
The Dolphins pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 7.61 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.
The Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards