WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 82.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
- The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to total 11.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- When it comes to air yards, Stefon Diggs ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 104.0 per game.
- Stefon Diggs has been among the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 92.0 yards per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
- The Dolphins pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 7.61 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.
- The Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards
95
Receiving Yards
