Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 268.5 (-110) after it opened @ 269.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to attempt 38.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Josh Allen has been among the best passers in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 269.0 yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Josh Allen’s throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 64.2% to 73.7%.

Cons

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
The Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.50 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami’s unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
280
Passing Yards