Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-139/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+108) after it opened @ 52.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Raheem Mostert has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (84th percentile).
- Raheem Mostert’s running efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 6.19 yards-per-carry vs just 4.78 figure last year.
- Raheem Mostert has been among the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.29 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
- The Bills safeties profile as the 29th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-fewest yards in football (just 98 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards
44
Rushing Yards
