Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-139/+108).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+108) after it opened @ 52.5 (-112).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Raheem Mostert has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (84th percentile).
Raheem Mostert’s running efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 6.19 yards-per-carry vs just 4.78 figure last year.
Raheem Mostert has been among the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.29 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
The Bills safeties profile as the 29th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-fewest yards in football (just 98 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards