Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-109) after it opened @ 68.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.60 seconds per play.
- The predictive model expects Travis Etienne to accrue 18.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Travis Etienne has been a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this season (65.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.6%).
- Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most yards in football (132 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Travis Etienne’s running efficiency has diminished this season, notching just 3.77 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.09 mark last season.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Atlanta’s group of safeties has been phenomenal since the start of last season, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
