Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Falcons to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- The projections expect Drake London to garner 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
- Drake London has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- Drake London’s ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.6% to 56.4%.
- Drake London has been among the worst wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 10th percentile.
- The Jaguars pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.8%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (64.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
