Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 255.5 (-113) after it opened @ 259.5 (-119).
Pros
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
- Jared Goff has been among the top quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 256.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
- Jared Goff’s throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 65.1% to 69.1%.
- Jared Goff has been among the most effective passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 7.41 yards-per-target while ranking in the 85th percentile.
- The Packers pass defense has displayed weak efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.20 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Lions have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.
- The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 33.9 passes this week, on average: the 11th-fewest of all QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
