Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 227.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 227.5 (-110) after it opened @ 224.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (246.0 per game) vs. the Lions defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
- Jordan Love has been among the least on-target passers in the league this year with a 55.0% Completion%, ranking in the 6th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards
253
Passing Yards
