Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Irv Smith from EV Insight

Irv SmithReceiving Yards

Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-114) after it opened @ 26.5 (-117).

Pros

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Burrow this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith Jr. to total 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 12.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Irv Smith has accounted for a whopping 9.7% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among TEs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Irv Smith Jr. has been among the least effective receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.82 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 11th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (65.2%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards