Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-125) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 42.1% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to garner 12.9 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Miles Sanders has garnered 50.6% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- Miles Sanders has grinded out 74.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (96th percentile).
- Opposing squads have run for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (134 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
