Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Miles Sanders from EV Insight

Miles SandersRushing Yards

Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-125) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 42.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to garner 12.9 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Miles Sanders has garnered 50.6% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Miles Sanders has grinded out 74.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (96th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (134 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards