Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-131) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Javonte Williams has been among the top RBs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.49 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 88th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.79 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards