Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 227.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (250.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in the league vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Russell Wilson has been among the least accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a 59.1% Completion%, checking in at the 3rd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards
230
Passing Yards
