Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-113/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-113) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to total 7.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews has accumulated a monstrous 79.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among tight ends.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Ravens are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be a less important option in his offense’s passing attack this week (24.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.9% in games he has played).
Mark Andrews has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in just 65.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 17th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards