Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 84.5 (-110) after it opened @ 85.5 (-114).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accrue 10.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been among the top wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 93.0 yards per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
102
Receiving Yards