Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to garner 14.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has garnered 68.6% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has picked up 62.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (85th percentile).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most yards in football (137 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Burrow this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Joe Mixon’s running effectiveness (4.10 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (24th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
