Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Rachaad White to garner 13.0 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Rachaad White to be a more important option in his offense’s running game this week (51.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (33.7% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 10th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 39.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Rachaad White’s rushing effectiveness (3.72 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (8th percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
