Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 238.5 (-114) after it opened @ 236.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have played in the most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the NFL against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (67.7%).
- The New York Giants defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.52 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
