Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Seahawks vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+105/-136).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (-136) after it opened @ 231.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Rams are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.98 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in football.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
- Matthew Stafford has been among the worst per-play passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 6.57 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 13th percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards
260
Passing Yards
