Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.0% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 3.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has compiled a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has been among the leading TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 32.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (76.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (76.1%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
