Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.6% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accumulate 6.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
- D.J. Moore has accumulated a colossal 90.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among WRs.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in football (69.6%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (69.6%).
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. WRs since the start of last season, yielding 9.63 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- D.J. Moore has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 58.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 10th percentile among wide receivers
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
