Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-125/-104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-104) after it opened @ 90.5 (-113).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Justin Jefferson has been among the best WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 103.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.4%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (63.4%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 7.40 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in football.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
101
Receiving Yards
101
Receiving Yards
