Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 268.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Kirk Cousins has been among the best QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 263.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Cons

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 206.0 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.05 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards