Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-113).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects James Cook to be much more involved in his offense’s running game this week (37.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.1% in games he has played).
James Cook’s ground efficiency (5.79 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (93rd percentile among running backs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.28 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards