Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chiefs vs. Lions
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Travis Kelce has run a route on 83.1% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has been among the leading TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 80.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a giant 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
