NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Skylar ThompsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Skylar Thompson’s passing yards prop is set at 185.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 185.5 (-110) after it opened @ 183.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Dolphins are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.31 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards
242
Passing Yards
