Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 244.5 (-110) after it opened @ 251.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 143.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys O-line has afforded their QB 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to attempt 38.0 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Dak Prescott has passed for quite a few less yards per game (241.0) this year than he did last year (288.0).
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 206.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards
253
Passing Yards
