Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 271.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 271.5 (-114) after it opened @ 274.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 143.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- Tom Brady has passed for a lot fewer yards per game (282.0) this season than he did last season (319.0).
- Tom Brady has been among the least effective passers in the league this year, averaging just 6.55 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 16th percentile.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
310
Passing Yards
310
Passing Yards
