Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-112) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 13.7 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has averaged 62.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (85th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 31.4% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this week (58.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.2% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 93 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
