Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 265.5 (-110) after it opened @ 273.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.6% pass rate.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 38.9 throws per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among QBs.
- Joe Burrow has passed for a lot more yards per game (291.0) this year than he did last year (266.0).
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 4th-most yards in football (244.0 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Cons
- The Bengals are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 8th-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
