Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (+110/-151).

The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (+110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Devin Singletary has grinded out 54.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (76th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 102 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards