Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (+110/-151).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (+110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Devin Singletary has grinded out 54.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (76th percentile).
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 102 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
