Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 260.5 (-145) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Josh Allen has been among the best QBs in football this year, averaging a stellar 271.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

Cons

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 36.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards