Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 218.5 (-110) after it opened @ 234.5 (-114).

Pros

The Seahawks are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Geno Smith has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 256.0 yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Geno Smith has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 69.6% Completion%, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 36.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.36 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards