Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Deebo Samuel’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, compiling 9.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 7.67 rate last year.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has not been good when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The 49ers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- Deebo Samuel has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
- Deebo Samuel’s 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 59.3.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
