Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Seahawks are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accumulate 9.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
- DK Metcalf has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (103.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- DK Metcalf’s talent in generating extra yardage have declined this season, totaling just 2.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.97 rate last season.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
