Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).

Pros

The Seahawks are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accumulate 9.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
DK Metcalf has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (103.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
DK Metcalf’s talent in generating extra yardage have declined this season, totaling just 2.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.97 rate last season.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards