Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-112/-117).

The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-112) after it opened @ 36.5 (-114).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to accrue 6.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has accrued substantially more receiving yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).

Cons

Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.4%) to TEs this year (60.4%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards