Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-112) after it opened @ 36.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to accrue 6.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has accrued substantially more receiving yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).
Cons
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in football.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.4%) to TEs this year (60.4%).
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
