Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this year (94.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in football.
- Christian Kirk has put up quite a few less air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.8%.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 122.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wide receivers this year, allowing 7.63 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
