Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Woods

Robert WoodsReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Robert Woods has been an integral part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 19.6% this year, which places him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.73 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
Robert Woods has notched quite a few less air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
Robert Woods has compiled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards