Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 269.5 (-133) after it opened @ 250.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for many more yards per game (252.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).

Cons

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards